Alexander Shlyakhter's home page

web: http://alexonline.info email: n@d where n=ilya_shl, d=alum.mit.edu

Keywords: (1) Oklo reactor, fundamental constants, cosmology, fine-structure constant, neutron cross sections, nucleosynthesis; (2) risk analysis, uncertainty analysis, expert overconfidence, radiation risk.

Personal: photos

Professional: papers on nuclear physics, risk analysis

Papers

Nuclear physics:

• Direct test of the constancy of fundamental nuclear constants, A. I. Shlyakhter, Nature Vol. 264 November 25, p. 340 1976

• Direct Test of the Time-Independence of Fundamental Nuclear Constants Using the Oklo Natural Reactor, A. I. Shlyakhter, ATOMKI (Debrecen, Hungary) Report A/1 (1983) (tex source, scanned original, ps, arXiv:physics/0307023v2).

• Direct Test for the Constancy of Fundamental Nuclear Constants Using the Oklo Natural Reactor, A. I. Shlyakhter, LNPI preprint 260, September 1976 (abstract)

For recent references revisiting the subject, see

• The oklo natural fission reactors and improved limits on the variation in the fine structure constant by E. David Davis, AIP Conference Proceedings 2160, 070012 (2019)
• Reappraisal of the limit on the variation in α implied by the Oklo natural fission reactors, Edward D. Davis and Leila Hamdan Phys. Rev. C 92, 014319 – Published 23 July 2015
• C. R. Gould et al. Time-variability of alpha from realistic models of Oklo reactors
• Y. Fujii et al. Oklo Constraint on the Time-Variability of the Fine-Structure Constant.
• Y. Fujii et al. Nuclear Data in Oklo and Time-Variability of Fundamental Coupling Constants
• Y. Fujii et al. The nuclear interaction at Oklo 2 billion years ago
• Thibault Damour, Freeman Dyson. The Oklo bound on the time variation of the fine-structure constant revisited.
• The Distribution of Thermal Neutron Cross Sections, Yu. V. Petrov and A. I. Shlyakhter, Nuclear Science and Engineering, 77: 157-167, 1981 (abstract)
• The Effect of Inelastic Neutron Acceleration by Isomeric Nuclei on the s-Process Nucleosynthesis, Yu. V. Petrov and A. I. Shlyakhter, The Astrophysical Journal, 278:385-387, 1984 March 1 (abstract)
• Enhancement of Nucleosynthesis Reaction Rates due to Nonthermalized Fast Neutrons, Yu. V. Petrov and A. I. Shlyakhter, The Astrophysical Journal, 327:294-297, 1988 April 1 (abstract, related recent work)
• Statistical Estimates of Thermal Neutron Capture Cross Sections, Yu. V. Petrov and A. I. Shlyakhter, Nuclear Science and Engineering, 89(3): 280-281, 1985 (abstract)
• The Cross Section of Inelastic Neutron Acceleration for Indium Isomers, Yu. V. Petrov and A. I. Shlyakhter, Nuclear Physics A, 292 (1-2): 88-92, 1977 (abstract)
• Calculations of the Cross Sections for the Neutron Acceleration, Slowing Down, and Capture by the Isomer ^180mHf, V. E. Marshalkin, Yu. V. Petrov, V. M. Povyshev, A. I. Shlyakhter, Soviet Journal of Nuclear Physics-USSR, 42 (2): 232-235 Aug 1985 (abstract)
• Depletion Functions and Their Use in the Calculation of Isotope Transmutations, A. I. Shlyakhter, Atomkernenergie-Kerntechnik, 42 (1): 33-38 1983 (abstract)
• Neutron Cross Sections of Isomeric Nuclei ^85mKr, ^87mSr, and ^91mNb, Yu. V. Petrov and A. I. Shlyakhter, Soviet Journal of Nuclear Physics-USSR, 23 (6): 631-632 1976 (abstract)
• Solution of Nuclide Burnup Equations Using Transition-Probabilities, M. S. Raykin and A. I. Shlyakhter, Nuclear Science and Engineering, 102 (1): 54-63 May 1989 (abstract)
• Low Energy Cross Section of Mesic Molecules Formation, Yu. V. Petrov, V. Yu. Petrov (Jr.) and A. I. Shlyakhter, Muon Catalyzed Fusion 2 (1988) 261-272 (abstract)

Risk analysis:

• Sea-level rise or fall?, Shlyakhter, A. and Kammen, D. M. (1992), Nature, 357, 25.
• The Men Who Survived Chernobyl's Cleanup , New York Times, October 28, 1991
• High Radiation Doses Seen for Soviet Arms Workers, New York Times, August 16, 1990
• Uncertainties in Modeling Low Probability/High Consequence Events: Application to Population Projections and Models of Sea-level Rise, A. I. Shlyakhter and D. M. Kammen, Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA '93), IEEE Computer Society Press, 1993, pp. 246-253. (abstract)
• Uncertainty Analysis of Multiple Epidemiological Studies Using Frequency Distributions of Relative Risks, A. Shlyakhter, Proceed. ISUMA- NAFIPS '95 Third International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, and Annual Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society. IEEE Computing Society Press, 1995, pp. 40-45. (abstract)
• Statistics of Past Errors as a Source of Safety Factors for Current Models, by A.I. Shlyakhter, in Model Uncertainty: Its Characterization and Quantification (1993; edited by: Ali Mosleh, Nathan Siu, Carol Smidts, Christina Lui; Published by: Center for Reliability Engineering, University of Maryland College Park, Maryland 20742-7531)
• Uncertainty Estimates in Scientific Models: Lessons from Trends in Physical Measurements, Population and Energy Projections A. I. Shlyakhter, in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis: Theory and Applications, B.M.Ayyub and M.M. Gupta (Editors), North-Holland-Elsevier Scientific Publishers, 1994 (abstract)
• The Expected Value of Information and the Probability of Surprise, J.K. Hammitt and A. I. Shlyakhter, Risk Analysis, vol. 19, no. 1, 1999 (abstract)
• Is There a Large Risk of Radiation? A Critical Review of Pessimistic Claims, A. Shihab-Eldin, A. Shlyakhter, R. Wilson. Environmental International, 18: 117-151 (1992). (abstract)
• Is There a Large Risk of Radiation? A Critical Review of Pessimistic Claims, A. Shihab-Eldin, A. Shlyakhter, R. Wilson. Argonne National Laboratory Report, (ANL-92/23) July, 1992. (89 pages) (abstract)
• Radiation-Doses and Cancer, A. Shlyakhter and R. Wilson, Nature, 350 (6313): 25-25 Mar 7 1991
• Possible Ecological Consequences of a Fall of a Nuclear-Powered Satellite, Yu. V. Petrov and A. I. Shlyakhter, PNPI Winter School, 1992.
• Monte Carlo Simulation of Rodent Carcinogenicity Bioassays, A. Shlyakhter, G. Goodman, R. Wilson, Risk Analysis, 12, 73-82 (1992) (abstract)
• An Improved Framework for Uncertainty Analysis: Accounting for Unsuspected Errors, Shlyakhter, A. I., in Risk Analysis, 14(4):441-447 1994 (abstract, recent related work)
• The Relationship Between Carcinogenic Potency and Maximum Tolerated Dose is Similar for Mutagens and Non-Mutagens, G. Goodman, A. Shlyakhter, R. Wilson. In: Chemically Induced Cell Proliferation: Implications for Risk Assessment, (eds. B.E. Butterworth, T.J. Slaga, W. Farland, M. McClain), Wiley-Liss, NY (1991), pp. 501-516.
• Chernobyl and Glasnost: The Effects of Secrecy on Health and Safety, A. Shlyakhter and R. Wilson, Environment 34(5): 25-30 (1992).
• The Men Who Survived Chernobyl's Cleanup", A. Shlyakhter, R. Wilson. New York Times (letter), October 28, 1991.
• Pacing the Soviet Cleanup, The Washington Post (letter), A. Shlyakhter and R. Wilson, June 15, 1992
• Chernobyl: The Inevitable Results of Secrecy, A. Shlyakhter, R. Wilson. Public Understand. Sci. 1 251-259 (1992), Chernobyl special issue. (abstract)
• Nuclear Fallout, R. Wilson and A. Shlyakhter, The Nation, May 31 1993, p. 722.
• Non-Gaussian uncertainty distributions: Historical trends and forecasts of the United States Energy Sector, 1983-2010, D. M. Kammen, A. I. Shlyakhter, C. L. Broido and R. Wilson. In: Proceed. ISUMA '93 Second International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, IEEE Computer Society Press (1993), pp. 112-119. (abstract)
• Estimating uncertainty in physical measurements, observational and environmental studies: Lessons from trends in nuclear data, A. I. Shlyakhter, I. Shlyakhter, C. L. Broido and R. Wilson. In: Proceed. ISUMA '93 Second International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, IEEE Computer Society Press (1993), pp. 310-317. (abstract)
• Quantifying the credibility of energy projections from trends in past data: the U.S. Energy Sector, A. I. Shlyakhter, D. M. Kammen, C. L. Broido and R. Wilson, Energy Policy, February 1994, p. 119-130. (abstract)
• What is the risk of the impossible?, D. M. Kammen, A. I. Shlyakhter, R. Wilson, Center of Domestic and Comparative Policy Studies - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs - Woking Paper 93-6, Nov. 1993.
• Re: "Magnetic Fields and Cancer in Children Residing Near Swedish High-Voltage Power Lines", (Comment on the Paper by M. Feychting and A. Ahlbom), R. Wilson and A. Shlyakhter, Am. J. Epidemiol. 141 378-379 (1995).
• Integrated Risk Analysis of Global Climate Change, A. Shlyakhter, L.J. Valverde, Jr., R. Wilson, Chemosphere 30(8): 1585-1618 (1995). (html, abstract))
• What is the Risk of the Impossible, D. M. Kammen, A. I. Shlyakhter, and R. Wilson. Journal of the Franklin Institute, 331A, 97-116 (1994) (pdf).
• Estimating the Range of Uncertainty in Future Development from Trends in Physical Constants and Predictions of Global Change, A. I. Shlyakhter and D. M. Kammen, CSIA Discussion Paper 92-06, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, July 1992 (abstract)
• What the educated public wants to know from Chernobyl, R. Lapp, A. Shlyakhter, R. Wilson. In Radiological Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident. Proceedings of the First International Conference of the European Commission, Belarus, Russian Federation and Ukraine, edited by A. Karaoglou, G. Desmet, G.N. Kelly and H.G. Menzel, IEEE Computer Society Press (1996), pp. 829-832.
• Constraints Limiting the Expansion of Nuclear Energy, A. Shlyakhter, K. Stadie, R. Wilson. U.S. Global Strategy Council, pp. 1-41 (1995).
• The Myths of Yablokov, an article in Andrey Sakharov Foundation archive documents
• Electromagnetic Fields and the Risk of Leukemia and Brain Cancer: A Review of Epidemiological Literature, Y. S. Loh, A. I. Shlyakhter, R. Wilson, Journal of the Franklin Institute 334A: 3-21 (1997).
• Monte Carlo Modeling of Epidemiological Studies , A. Shlyakhter, L. Mirny, A. Vlasov, and R. Wilson, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 2(4):920-928 (1996). (pdf with figures, html)
• "Uncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment", R. Wilson and A. Shlyakhter, in Fundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Management, Dr. Vlasta Molak, editor. CRC Press, Inc., pp. 33-44 (1997).
• Monte Carlo Simulation of Uncertainties in Epidemiological Studies: An Example of False-Positive Findings Due to Misclassification, A. Shlyakhter and R. Wilson. In: Proceed. ISUMA- NAFIPS '95 Third International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, and Annual Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society. IEEE Computing Society Press, 1995, pp. 685-689 (abstract)
• Health Effects of Russian Nuclear Accidents: What We Can Learn, R. Wilson and A. I. Shlyakhter. Trans. Am. Nucl. Soc. 71: 41-42 (1995)
• Quantifying nonstationary radioactivity concentration fluctuations near Chernobyl: A complete statistical description, G. M. Viswanathan, S. V. Buldyrev, E. K. Garger, V. A. Kashpur, L. S. Lucena, A. Shlyakhter, H. E. Stanley, and J. Tschiersch, Physical Review E, 62(3): 4389-4392 (Sep 2000). (abstract)
• Noncancer risk assessment: A probabilistic alternative to current practice, S. J. S. Baird, J. T. Cohen, J. D. Graham, A. I. Shlyakhter, J. S. Evans, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 2(1): 79-102, March 1996 (ocr, abstract)
• A Procedure for Simultaneous Calculation of Sensitivities in Probabilistic Risk Assessments, S. Uryasev and A. Shlyakhter, 1994 SRA meeting paper.
• Combining Risk Estimates from Multiple Epidemiologic Studies: A Distributional Approach, A. Shlyakhter, 1994 SRA meeting paper.
• Levy Stable Distribution--A Long-Tail Generalization Of The Normal Distribution, A. Shlyakhter, 1994 SRA meeting paper.
• Integrated Risk Analysis of Global Climate Change, A. I. Shlyakhter, L. J. Valverde and R. Wilson, 1994 SRA meeting paper.
• Accounting for Missing Bioassay Data in Uncertainty Analysis of Population Thresholds for Noncancer Health Effects, A. I. Shlyakhter and J. S. Evans, 1995 SRA meeting paper.
• Probabilistic Characterization of Missing Data in Noncancer Risk Assessment, S. J. S. Baird, A. I. Shlyakhter and J. S. Evans, 1996 SRA meeting paper
• The Possibility of Surprise and the Expected Value of Information, J. K. Hammitt and A. I. Shlyakhter, 1997 SRA meeting paper
• Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases by Alternative Energy Sources, Daniel M. Kammen, Richard Wilson and Alexander I. Shlyakhter, NIGEC report, 1994.

People

• Richard Wilson
• Yuri Petrov ( Theory Department of PNPI)
• PNPI Theory Department former members
• Daniel M. Kammen

Links

• The Constants of Nature by John Barrow
• GAIA Unlimited - Consulting and Research on Environmental/Occupational Issues
• Inconstant constants (article from Scientific American)
• Nebula Search internet directory