Uncertainties in Modeling Low Probability/High Consequence Events: Application to Population Projections and Models of Sea-level Rise

Alexander I. Shlyakhter and Daniel M. Kammen

Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA '93), IEEE Computer Society Press, 1993, pp. 246-253


We present a simple method for estimating uncertainty in modeling and forecasts based upon an analysis of errors in old measurements and projections. Probabilities of large deviations are parametrized by an exponential function with one free parameter. We illustrate this formulation by quantifying uncertainties in national population projections and by estimating the probability of extreme sea-level rise resulting from global warming.

Keywords: uncertainty analysis, risk analysis, forecast, projection, population, sea-level rise, climate change, global warming

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