Non-Gaussian uncertainty distributions: Historical trends and forecasts of the United States Energy Sector, 1983-2010

D. M. Kammen, A. I. Shlyakhter, C. L. Broido and R. Wilson

Proceed. ISUMA '93 Second International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, IEEE Computer Society Press (1993), pp. 112-119


We apply a novel method of uncertainty parametrization and analysis to time-series data of recent supply and demand projections for the United States' energy sector. Based on determinations of the actual uncertainties in past forecasts (1983-1990) of over 170 energy producing and consuming sectors of the U. S. economy we develop a simple one-parameter model that can be used to estimate a probability distribution for future projections.

Keywords: uncertainty, confidence intervals, energy supply, energy demand, energy projections

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